Right here we’re, on the final day of the 12 months, writing my final ChartWatchers publication contribution for 2021.
By the point you might be studying this, it is going to be 2022. So let me kick off by…
wishing you a really comfortable and above all wholesome new 12 months!!
Given the state of affairs the world is in in the intervening time, issues can get so much higher in a variety of areas!!
In fact, I’ve been desirous about some New 12 months’s resolutions with regard to the RRG charts, the RRG weblog, and Sector Highlight. I do not suppose any of those are “damaged”, so we do not have to “repair” something. However we are able to at all times attempt to enhance.
One of many issues I’m actually trying ahead to is working with the dev crew at StockCharts.com, each so as to add new options and usually enhance the RRG charting capabilities each on SharpCharts and bringing RRG to ACP. Now we have a ton of concepts!!
On the content material aspect (weblog and video) I’m considering of getting extra “structural” segments. In Sector Highlight, there are a couple of, just like the seasonality section I do each final Tuesday of the month and the month-to-month charts that I speak about each first Tuesday of the month. However I consider there will be extra of these. Perhaps so simple as sustaining a desk with “+ / = / -” per sector on the finish of every episode of Sector Highlight or organising a public chartlist for that. And/or break that right down to teams — and perhaps even shares as effectively.
The most important drawback, in all probability, will likely be to maintain up with the writing. Discovering and researching all of the sectors, teams and shares is one factor, however writing an article or presenting them in Sector Highlight on the how, why and what takes up a variety of time. So I have to discover a method that balances out getting fascinating content material and findings in a extra structural method with out getting boring for readers of the blogs and watchers of the present.
One other one in all my plans is to write down a “residing article” that’s primarily a list of extra instructional (components of ) weblog articles and SSL (and different movies). This can even be an funding for me, as many emails that I obtain are associated to “the place can I discover extra information on …..?” With the ability to check with an article that lists all, or at the very least so much, of assets will likely be a time saver!!
I am certain we’ll get there and if in case you have any sensible concepts… simply let me know.
Shares Stay Sturdy
Going into the brand new 12 months, the rotation for shares (ITOT) on the Relative Rotation Graph for asset courses stays optimistic.
Wanting on the RRG above, we discover shares contained in the main quadrant at a really quick tail. That signifies that a secure (quick tail) relative uptrend (right-hand aspect of the graph) remains to be in play. The other is discovered for Authorities bonds (GOVT), in addition to the opposite fixed-income associated asset courses (HYG, LQD) on the left-hand aspect of the graph.
If we zoom in and blow up the rotation for ITOT and GOVT, we are able to see a slight weakening for ITOT and enchancment for GOVT over the previous few weeks. In the meanwhile, that doesn’t change the choice for shares over bonds. As a matter of truth, plotting the identical ETFs on a each day RRG already exhibits renewed power for ITOT vs GOVT.
The outright comparability between shares and bonds within the graph above exhibits the latest enchancment for shares, because the ratio simply jumped away from a small correction, which introduced it right down to the decrease boundary of the rising channel that was in play for many of 2021.
Breaking convincingly above its earlier excessive will very seemingly set the stage for the primary few weeks of 2022.
Please discover my handles for social media channels below the Bio under.
Suggestions, feedback or questions are welcome at Juliusdk@stockcharts.com. I can’t promise to answer each message, however I’ll actually learn them and, the place moderately potential, use the suggestions and feedback or reply questions.
To debate RRG with me on S.C.A.N., tag me utilizing the deal with Julius_RRG.
RRG, Relative Rotation Graphs, JdK RS-Ratio, and JdK RS-Momentum are registered emblems of RRG Analysis.
Julius de Kempenaer is the creator of Relative Rotation Graphs™. This distinctive technique to visualise relative power inside a universe of securities was first launched on Bloomberg skilled providers terminals in January of 2011 and was launched on StockCharts.com in July of 2014.
After graduating from the Dutch Royal Army Academy, Julius served within the Dutch Air Drive in a number of officer ranks. He retired from the army as a captain in 1990 to enter the monetary trade as a portfolio supervisor for Fairness & Regulation (now a part of AXA Funding Managers).
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