Market Replace – Might 3 – USD Holds, Shares Get better, Hawkish Shock from RBA


USD continues to carry onto current positive factors, Shares bounced again from Friday’s crash however  VIX stays over 30.0 and the RBA elevated rates of interest by 25 bp, not the 15bp most had been anticipating, to 0.35%.  US ISM Manufacturing PMI – missed considerably at 55.4 vs. 57.5 & 57.1 final time. Yields jumped larger with 10-yr over 3.00% at one level. Gold slumped over 2% as yields rose, and Oil rose over $5 following information of EU threats (with Germany apparently in settlement) to chop Russian vitality imports and ‘extra Russian banks’ to go away SWIFT. Asian markets combined and European Futures all larger.

  • USDIndex holds at highs forward of FED’s “nailed on” at the least 50bp hike tomorrow, trades at 103.55.
  • EquitiesUSA500 +23 (0.57%) at 4155. US500FUTS at 4158 now. FB, AMD & NVDA all +5%, TSLA +3.77% (Musk searching for further sources of funding for TWTR takeover).  BP beat expectations earnings at $6bn
  • Yields moved larger 10-yr closed at 2.996%, having breached 3.00%, & trades inside a tick of that degree at this time. 
  • Oil & Gold each had unstable session –  USOil examined right down to $100.00 earlier than reversing to $106 on EU information, trades at $104.60 now. Gold slumped from  $1920 zone on Friday to $1854 yesterday and struggles at $1858 now.
  • Bitcoin pivots by way of $38.5k capped at $39K & supported at $38k.  
  • FX marketsEURUSD right down to 1.0500, USDJPY pivots at 130.00, Cable holds over 1.2500 at 1.2515.   AUD spiked from 0.7030 to 0.7147.

In a single day  RBA’s Lowe: “Additional will increase in rates of interest will likely be vital over the months forward”. (Final fee hike was 2011)

Immediately German Unemployment, EZ PPI & Unemployment, US Manufacturing unit Orders and NZ Unemployment, Speech from ECB’s Lagarde. Earnings – AMD, Pfizer, Starbucks,  BNP Paribas, Deutsche Put up and Uniper. JPY & China closed.

Largest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDCHF (+1.10%) Rallied from RBA shock. Lows yesterday at 0.6850 to 0.6985 highs (resistance) at this time. MAs aligned larger, MACD sign line & histogram transferring larger, RSI 71, OB however rising, H1 ATR 0.0018, Each day ATR 0.0075.

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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