Foreign exchange and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for Might 16 – 20, 2022 – Analytics & Forecasts – 14 Might 2022

EUR/USD: On the Strategy to 1.0000

● The greenback continues to rise, whereas the EUR/USD pair continues to fall. The DXY greenback index crept near 104.9 on Thursday, Might 12. The final time it climbed this excessive was 20 years in the past. The pair discovered the underside on the degree of 1.0349, within the space of the lows of December 2016 – January 2017. Just a little extra, and following DXY, it can get to the place it traded 20 years in the past. And there, parity 1:1 is only a stone’s throw away.

● The explanation for the subsequent strengthening of the US foreign money was, as common, two components: the restoration of the labor market and the expansion of inflation. It’s these components that decide the tempo of tightening financial coverage by the Fed. 

Based on the forecast, US jobless claims ought to have proven a slight improve. However the precise information, launched on Thursday Might 12, confirmed that the scenario within the labor market is a lot better than anticipated. The variety of preliminary requests has grown, however not by 3K, as predicted, however solely by 1K. The variety of repeated requests, as a substitute of accelerating by 3K, decreased by as a lot as 44K.

A day earlier, on Might 11, inflation information appeared. The core client worth index within the US elevated by 0.3% in April and amounted to 0.6%. This progress is way lower than the 1.2% improve in March. However this doesn’t imply in any respect that inflation within the nation has reached a peak and can solely lower additional. By no means. Oil costs stay above $100 a barrel, pushing up the price of items, transportation prices and family spending. New vehicles elevated in worth by 1.1% in April (solely by 0.2% in March), whereas airfare costs rose by 18.6% over the month, displaying the biggest improve in 60 years. As well as, with a excessive diploma of chance, a collection of lockdowns in China on account of a brand new wave of coronavirus will result in issues with logistics and commodity alternate, which is not going to assist cut back inflation both.

● The mixture of those components means that the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to alter its plans to tighten financial coverage: to cut back the stability sheet and lift charges. Following the top of the regulator Jerome Powell, his colleagues within the FOMC – the top of the Federal Reserve Financial institution of Cleveland Loretta Mester and the top of the New York Fed John Williams supported the intention to boost the federal funds charge by 0.5% at every of the 2 upcoming conferences, bringing it to 2.0%.

● As for his or her counterparts on the opposite aspect of the Atlantic, the ECB’s key figures advocating a begin to increase rates of interest are nonetheless within the minority. Most members of the Board of Governors of the Financial institution are nonetheless satisfied that the rise in inflation within the Eurozone is a short lived phenomenon, brought about primarily by rising power costs on account of sanctions towards Russia, which invaded Ukraine.

In consequence, a strong divergence between the clearly hawkish place of the US Fed and the indistinctly dovish place of the ECB continues to push the EUR/USD pair down, forcing new multi-year lows.

● In the meanwhile, analysts’ voices are divided as follows: 70% of analysts are assured that the greenback will proceed to strengthen, the remaining 30% are ready for the pair’s correction to the north. On the similar time, when switching from a weekly to a month-to-month forecast, the variety of these voting for the expansion of the pair will increase to 80%.  All 100% of the indications on D1 aspect with the greenback, after one other fall of the pair. Nevertheless, 20% of oscillators are within the oversold zone. The closest resistance is situated within the zone of 1.0420, the subsequent goal of the bulls on EUR/USD is a return to the zone of 1.0480-1.0580. If profitable, they’ll then attempt to break by means of the resistance at 1.0640 and rise to the zone of 1.0750-1.0800. For the bears, the #1 activity is to replace the Might 13 low of 1.0350, after which they’ll storm the 2017 low of 1.0340, under are solely the help of 20 years in the past.

● As for the calendar for the approaching week, we advocate being attentive to the publication of information on costs and volumes of retail gross sales within the US on Tuesday, Might 17. The speeches of the heads of the ECB Christine Lagarde and of the Fed Jerome Powell are anticipated on the identical day. The Eurozone Client Worth Index might be identified on Wednesday, Might 18, and information on manufacturing exercise and the state of the labor market in america might be acquired on Thursday, Might 19.


GBP/USD: GBP Charge Hike Is Attainable, However Not Apparent

● As talked about above, the DXY greenback index has reached 20-year highs. Based on consultants, it has risen by 5.1% over the previous 4 weeks. On the similar time, the GBP/USD pair fell 7.4%, outperforming the common by 2.3%. Nevertheless, not every thing is so dangerous for the British foreign money.

The Financial institution of England predicted an increase in inflation from the present 7.0% (30-year excessive) to 10.25% at its assembly on Might 05. And though the regulator left the forecast for GDP progress for the present 12 months unchanged (+3.75%), it expects a recession ranging from the This autumn. The British Central Financial institution expects a 0.25% discount in GDP in 2023 as a substitute of the beforehand deliberate progress of 1.25%. Based on the brand new forecast, GDP will develop not by 1.0%, however by solely 0.25% in 2024.

This state of affairs, after all, can’t be referred to as optimistic. Nevertheless, every week later, on Might 12, statistics confirmed that the nation’s GDP within the Q1 rose by 8.7% year-on-year, severely exceeding the earlier determine of 6.6%. This dynamics offers buyers hope that the regulator is not going to cease on the present rate of interest of 1.0%, and just like the Fed, it can go on additional elevating it so as to combat inflation. And this, in flip, will help the British foreign money. Or no less than hold it from sliding additional down.

GBP/USD hit a weekly low at 1.2154, with the final chord at 1.2240. In case of additional correction to the north, the pair must overcome the resistance within the zone 1.2300-1.2330, then there are zones 1.2400, 1.2470-1.2570, 1.2600-1.2635, 1.2700-1.2750, 1.2800-1.2835 and 1.2975-1.3000. When transferring south, the primary help would be the degree of 1.2200, then 1.2154-1.2164 and 1.2075. A robust level of help for the pair is on the psychologically essential degree of 1.2000. 85% of consultants vote for additional weakening of the British foreign money, 15% count on a rebound upwards. And right here it must be famous that when switching to forecasting till the top of the June, the variety of the pair’s progress supporters will increase to 75%. There may be nonetheless a complete benefit of the purple ones among the many indicators on D1: 100% amongst pattern indicators and 90% amongst oscillators look down. The remaining 10% among the many latter have turned north.

● As for the occasions of the upcoming week regarding the financial system of the UK, we are able to spotlight the publication of information on unemployment and wages within the nation on Tuesday Might 17. The brand new worth of the Client Worth Index will develop into identified on Wednesday, Might 18, and retail gross sales within the UK for April on the finish of the working week, on Friday, Might 20.


USD/JPY: From Return on Capital to Its Security

● The Japanese yen carried out higher final week than its “colleagues”, the euro and the British pound. As most consultants anticipated, the bulls tried to resume the April 28 excessive at 131.24. Nevertheless, having risen solely 10 pips greater to 131.34, they gave up, and the USD/JPY pair flew down, discovering help solely at 127.51. Undoubtedly, the present volatility of the pair is spectacular: the weekly buying and selling vary was 383 factors. That is even though it hovered round 150 factors on common  within the This autumn 2021 – the Q1 2022. The end of the final week occurred within the central zone of the indicated vary, on the degree of 129.30. 

● Barring volatility throughout the coronavirus pandemic, the USD/JPY drop on Thursday Might 12 was the largest one-day swing since 2010.  The strengthening of the Japanese foreign money, in accordance with a lot of consultants, was because of the elevated craving of buyers for essentially the most risk-free belongings. Up so far, the greenback has risen on the again of rising rates of interest and better yields on 10-year US Treasury payments.  Nevertheless, if buyers proceed to favor capital preservation over returns, USD/JPY will proceed to fall.

● The yen was additionally strengthened by the expectation of adjustments within the coverage of the Financial institution of Japan. Many buyers, particularly overseas ones, predict that, regardless of the regulator’s assurances of dedication to an ultra-soft financial coverage, it could nonetheless go for a rise in rates of interest. Furthermore, there have already been such precedents, albeit in the other way. Markets keep in mind 2016, when the top of the Central Financial institution, Haruhiko Kuroda, first denied the potential of introducing damaging charges categorically, after which immediately determined to take such a step.

● In the meanwhile, consultants’ forecasts look as unsure because the pair’s quotes. 40% vote for its progress, 50% are in favor of the autumn of the pair and the remaining 10% have taken a impartial place. There’s a comparable discord among the many indicators on D1. As for pattern indicators, 65% are inexperienced, 35% are purple.  The oscillators have 40% on the inexperienced aspect, 25% on the purple aspect, and 35% hve turned impartial grey. The closest help is situated at 128.60, adopted by zones and ranges at 128.00, 127.50, 127.00, 126.30-126.75, 126.00 and 125.00. The purpose of the bulls is to rise above the 130.00 horizon and renew the Might 05 excessive at 131.34. The January 1, 2002 excessive of 135.19 is seen as the ultimate purpose.

● Information on Japan’s GDP for the Q1 of this 12 months might be revealed subsequent week, on Wednesday, Might 18. It’s anticipated that this indicator will lower by 0.4% from the earlier worth of 1.1%.


CRYPTOCURRENCIES: “$1 Million per BTC, or Zero”

● In case you learn the headlines of the final week, you get the robust impression that the cryptocurrencies have only some months left to stay, if not days. “Crypto Market Bloodbath”, “Bitcoin Requiem”, “Crypto Bubble Burst” are simply a few of them. However is all of it that scary?

Certainly, the market suffers very critical losses. Bitcoin has misplaced about 45% of its worth because the finish of March, hitting $26,580 on Might 12. Most different cash really feel even worse. As has been mentioned many occasions, the reason for panic is the worldwide drop in investor danger urge for food. The crypto market solely follows within the wake of the inventory market: the correlation between digital asset quotes and inventory indices S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq is at its most.

The tightening of the financial coverage of the US Federal Reserve, new outbreaks of coronavirus in China, fears about the way forward for the EU financial system: all this has led buyers to favor the greenback over dangerous belongings. A further driver is rising yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds. This determine has nearly doubled since March and rose over 3%: to the best degree since 2018, exceeding the returns of most sectors of the US inventory market.

● Along with international components, the collapse of the third largest stablecoin when it comes to capitalization, UST, put extra strain on the crypto market. It’s believed that stablecoins serve to facilitate funding transactions and must be pegged to the true greenback in a ratio of 1:1. The worth of UST instantly collapsed to $0.64, casting doubt on the flexibility of the Terra crew to take care of its charge. Towards the backdrop of issues with UST, the native Terra LUNA token additionally went down, dropping greater than 90% of its worth. It price about $120 again in April, however you should buy it for $5 now. And right here it have to be borne in thoughts that the Terra blockchain protocol is a reasonably large undertaking that was within the TOP-10 when it comes to market capitalization.

The destiny of the centralized stablecoin Tether with a capitalization of $82 billion causes some concern as properly. An audit of this undertaking carried out in 2021 confirmed that as a substitute of {dollars}, which ought to present a reserve for the undertaking, there are a whole lot of securities within the accounts. Towards this background, the sale of USDT has intensified: its capitalization has decreased by $1.4 billion in latest days.

● The whole capitalization of the crypto market continues to fall. On the time of penning this evaluate, Friday night, Might 13, it’s at $1.290 trillion ($1.657 trillion every week in the past). The Crypto Concern & Greed Index has fallen from 22 to 10 factors out of 100, firmly entrenched within the Excessive Concern zone. The BTC/USD pair, after a slight upward rebound, is buying and selling round $30.150. The low of the week, as already talked about, was mounted at $26.580. The final time the pair was so low was in December 2020.

● The variety of “whales” amongst bitcoin holders, whose capital exceeds the bar of 1000 BTC, is quickly declining. This determine has already reached its lows because the starting of the 12 months. On the similar time, the quantity of cryptocurrency on the exchanges, quite the opposite, is at its most over the previous three months. Based on Glassnode analysts, the common quantity of coin inflows to centralized exchanges is now hovering round 1755 BTC.

● Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz expressed doubt that the bulls will be capable to defend the $30,000 help ranges for bitcoin and $2,000 for ethereum. “Till we attain a brand new equilibrium,” he wrote, “digital belongings will proceed to commerce in shut correlation with the Nasdaq. Instinct tells us that there’ll nonetheless be a drawdown forward, and this can happen in a really unstable, risky and complicated market.” Mike Novogratz warned that the damaging state of affairs may materialize if the Nasdaq index falls under 11,000 (it hit 11,688 on Might 12).

● Gold apologist, billionaire Peter Schiff, predicted the principle cryptocurrency to break down under $10,000. And one other billionaire veteran of the bitcoin trade, 2020 US presidential candidate Brock Pierce mentioned in an interview with Fox Enterprise that it may be very profitable, however it may additionally fail. “Bitcoin may drop to zero. Right here is the binary end result. Both there might be $1 million per BTC, or zero,” he mentioned.

Pierce believes that the present “cryptocurrency panorama” is similar to the historical past of the tech corporations’ bubble. “The scenario is similar to 1999. The market is now in the identical part. So what occurred then? After the dot-com bubble, eBay, Amazon and different attention-grabbing corporations appeared, however a whole lot of companies went bankrupt. However this doesn’t imply that digital belongings are unrealistic and won’t play an essential position in our collective future,” the billionaire mentioned. Pierce admitted that he diversified his portfolio, primarily by means of Ethereum. He additionally positioned a “9 zeros” guess on EOS, changing all of his shares into cryptocurrency.

● In contrast to different influencers, ARK Make investments CEO Katherine Wooden continues to precise sustained optimism and believes that the rising correlation between cryptocurrencies and conventional belongings signifies that the bearish pattern will finish quickly. The businesswoman opined that the depreciation of bitcoin together with the standard market is a short lived phenomenon: “Cryptocurrency is a brand new asset class that ought to not observe the Nasdaq, however that’s what is going on. We’re at the moment in a bearish pattern the place all belongings are transferring in the identical method and we’re seeing one market after one other capitulate, however cryptocurrencies could also be near finishing it.”

The top of ARK Make investments believes that the cryptocurrency market will develop exponentially as conventional belongings collapse. “The present recession within the inventory and bond markets, commodities and cryptocurrency markets is inflicting damaging sentiment amongst buyers. However take a look at our analysis… I can’t even inform you how assured we’re that our merchandise will change the world and are already on an exponential progress trajectory.” Based on Wooden, blockchain is in a know-how sector that may develop greater than 20 occasions within the subsequent seven to eight years.

● One other hope for buyers is that bitcoin is already midway to its subsequent halving. It occurred at block quantity 735,000 on Might 05. This occasion happens each 210 thousand blocks, or roughly as soon as each 4 years, with rather less than 105 thousand blocks left till the subsequent one. The halving date will be predicted to inside a few days, as a result of the block manufacturing time fluctuates round 10 minutes. The earlier halving occurred on Might 11, 2020, and the subsequent one will happen roughly in April 2024.

Halving cycles are one of many major mechanisms of the bitcoin community, which includes halving the BTC reward for miners. Accordingly, the problem of bitcoins can also be halved, since miners’ rewards are the one supply of issuing new cash. From the inception of bitcoin to the primary halving, miners have been rewarded with 50 BTC per block. Then the quantity in bitcoins was decreased to 25 BTC, and within the subsequent cycle to 12.5 BTC. At present, miners obtain 6.25 BTC for mining a block.

And if miners undergo losses on account of halving, buyers, quite the opposite, earn. As observations present, earlier than the primary halving, BTC price about $127, earlier than the second, its worth rose to $758, and earlier than the third, to $10,943. It stays to attend for not so lengthy, lower than two years, to seek out out whether or not there might be an identical explosive rise within the worth of BTC in 2024.


NordFX Analytical Group

Discover: These supplies are usually not funding suggestions or tips for working in monetary markets and are meant for informational functions solely. Buying and selling in monetary markets is dangerous and can lead to a whole lack of deposited funds.

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