Are dynamic Marriott factors extra helpful now? Sure, however with a giant caveat …

The Factors Man not too long ago printed a quantitative evaluation arguing that the Marriott factors, even after the implementation of dynamic awards, retain its purported worth of ~0.8 cent/pt. To get that conclusion, they pulled information from 50+ accommodations over ~150 days. In reality, the common redemption worth after the dynamic award is in place is 0.84 c/pt. They thus concluded that Marriott’s dynamic award scheme isn’t unhealthy in any case. A minimum of it’s not an enormous devaluation as beforehand dreaded.

Gary from View From The Wing disagreed with TPG‘s methodology and challenged their conclusion, calling it not an apple-to-apple comparability. Gary’s argument is that TPG didn’t consider what number of factors a resort would have value within the previous system, so the benchmark merely isn’t proper. On high of some private expertise of being “Bonvoyed”, Gary concluded that “How anybody can have a look at the modifications and never see much less worth is past me”.

Who is correct right here? Is Marriott so irredeemably unhealthy, or has giving Marriott flack turn into the politically appropriate factor to do within the journey blogosphere? On this put up, we attempt to resolve this dispute by letting the information communicate for itself.

Strategies

Constructing upon TPG‘s (incomplete) methodology, we searched and compiled money and level value of 7800+ Marriott properties over the course of a full calendar 12 months. This prevents biases in properties (e.g. luxurious resorts vs convention accommodations) in addition to in seasons. Contemplating Gary’s legitimate criticism of what benchmarks ought to the brand new dynamic worth be contrasted with, we pulled the previous level redemption values earlier than the awards changing into dynamic. This allows a very apple-to-apple comparability.

One legitimate criticism of this strategy, in fact, is that the scope is so giant that it mainly ignores what’s happening in particular person accommodations. Suppose there’s a Courtyard property going up in values and a St Regis taking place. The notion may very well be very a lot totally different, whereas the maths suggests all the things is okay. To handle this potential subject, we checked out particular person accommodations and requested: which accommodations have been impacted most by this transformation (each negatively and positively from a buyer standpoint).

Outcomes

Common redemption values

Having surveyed almost 98% accommodations in Marriott’s whole portfolio over a full calendar 12 months, we discovered the worth of the dynamic factors certainly facilities round 0.8 c/pt.

The imply worth is 0.82 c/pt and the median is 0.79 c/pt. There are 24 properties that give a redemption worth better than 2.0 c/pt, which we take into account “out-sized” values.

Now again to Gary’s query: how about earlier than? Is the 0.82 c/pt worth, on common, higher or worse? Let’s try the plot beneath.

To our shock, the distribution of the previous redemption system barely sits to the left, centering round 0.7 c/pt. The previous common was 0.79 c/pt with a median of 0.76 c/pt. If we have a look at the tail on the appropriate facet, it’s really barely worse than the consequence beneath the dynamic scheme.

Which means, at face worth, Marriott factors simply turn into barely extra helpful after awards changing into dynamic, which is sort of counter-intuitive to be trustworthy. It is usually noteworthy that TPG‘s outcomes are fairly near our estimates regardless of their a lot smaller pattern dimension. TPG deserves the kudos right here for its quantitative strategy.

What about particular person accommodations?

Granted, a better redemption worth doesn’t imply your can at all times rating a greater deal, as a result of the evaluation above overlooks particular person accommodations. To reply this query, we in contrast the redemption values of the identical resort earlier than and after March 29. Has level redemption turn into roughly enticing?

Seems greater than half of the accommodations don’t see a lot change in any respect. A couple of third of the accommodations really see an increase in level redemption values. That is per the findings within the earlier part, the place dynamic awards shifts the general distribution of redemption values to the appropriate a bit of bit.

Nevertheless, a giant caveat acquired our consideration: there are 85 accommodations whose new dynamic redemption values are 0.4 c/pt or extra decrease than earlier than. On the appropriate facet, solely 42 accommodations rating higher redemption offers. Let’s see who they’re.

However hey, I simply need to go to Hawaii …

Now let’s delve into the ultimate facet of this evaluation. If a enterprise traveler has amassed tons of Marriott factors and simply desires to spend all of them in an opulent seashore resort in Hawaii, is the brand new change good or unhealthy for him/her?

Right here is the checklist of accommodations whose redemption values diverse better than or equal to 0.4 (in each instructions).

Many sought-after accommodations in Hawaii, in addition to different well-known vacationer locations (Maldives, Half Moon Bay, simply to call a couple of), noticed a hike in level value and a steep drop in redemption values. Which means when you have a devoted resort property to burn your whole Marriott factors, this transformation doesn’t work in your favor.

Conclusion

Within the grand scheme of issues, Marriott’s dynamic award really means the factors are barely extra helpful, supporting what TPG claims. Nevertheless, the large caveat is that it doesn’t imply the resort you need to spend factors on acquired extra reasonably priced. The fact might be on the contrary, particularly for those who explicitly need to burn the factors in high-end properties in fashionable vacationer locations. We predict Gary’s argument can be extra convincing if he identified the devaluation of these particular properties.

On the ultimate be aware, we expect Marriott deserves some credit right here as a result of it has explicitly introduced that the properties in a few of the hottest locations (most notably Hawaii) was about to value extra factors quickly. Such bulletins purchased us some buffering time to strategically e-book these resort for the long run. When you have scored a deal, please tell us by leaving a remark beneath!

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